Three major pre-poll surveys offer a hint at the likely outcome of the Bangladesh Elections. Two of those surveys indicate clear electoral dominance by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), while the third one suggested a close fight between the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami.

The crucial polls, scheduled for February 12, pose a key test for the two alliances led by the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami after the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Who is likely to win? Here's what pre poll surveys say:

A survey carried out by the Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) revealed that the BNP-led alliance could win approximately 208 seats (of 300) in the Bangladesh election, the Dhaka Tribune reported.

Suggesting that voters may prefer the BNP, the survey claimed that Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance may secure 46 seats. In addition, the Jatiya Party is projected to win three seats, other parties four seats, and independent candidates 17 seats, the report added.

The results were based on the opinions of around 41,500 respondents - 26,560 were men (64%) and 14,922 were women (36%)

As per the local media report, a total of 66.3 percent of respondents expressed their intention to vote for the BNP, while Jamaat-e-Islami ranked second with 11.9 percent support.

The NCP received 1.7 percent support. Among others, the Jatiya Party secured 4 percent support, while independent candidates accounted for 2.6 percent.

The survey reportedly suggested that the BNP enjoys strong support among women voters, with 71.1 percent expressing support for the party.

It claimed that a significant portion of voters who previously supported Hasina's Awami League are now in favour of political change.

EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Hayder Talukdar was quoted by Dhaka Tribune as saying that 80 percent of former Awami League voters expressed intention to vote for the BNP in the upcoming election — and 15% said they would support Jamaat-e-Islami.

The opinion survey by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) revealed that while the BNP-led alliance was clearly ahead in terms of overall vote share, the Jamaat-led electoral alliance was leading in constituencies where victory appeared assured.

According to a report in Prothomalo, the survey suggested that the Jamaat-led alliance could secure a definite victory in 105 constituencies, whereas the BNP-led alliance could be assured of victory on 101 seats.

It said candidates from other parties may win in 19 constituencies.

The survey further claimed that the BNP-led alliance may secure 44.1 percent of the vote, while an electoral alliance of 11 political parties led by Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami could receive 43.9 per cent.

The findings also indicated a closely fought contest in 75 constituencies between candidates of the two alliances.

The survey reportedly included 63,115 voters nationwide. Of them, 36,634 were men, accounting for 57.59 per cent of respondents, while 26,981 were women, representing 42.41 per cent, Prothomalo reported.

A survey by the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC) echoed BNP's advantage and projected that the BNP could secure 77 percent of the vote and win 220 seats.

Meanwhile, Jamaat-e-Islami was projected to win 57 seats, with the rest split among smaller parties and independents.

Bangladesh's national elections will be held on February 12, and the results will be announced on February 13.

The Jatiya Sangsad or Parliament of Bangladesh has 350 elected members, who, like its neighbour, India, serve five-year terms. However, only 300 members are elected by the people for their respective constituencies.

The remaining 50 seats are reserved for women and are filled by a vote of the 300 members based on proportional representation, the Indian Express explained.

A political party or coalition must win 151 of the total 300 seats (more than half) to form a government in the country. Members for the remaining 50 seats reserved for women are elected later.

This year, the contest is between two alliances – one is led by the BNP (currently headed by former PM Khaleda Zia's son Tarique Rahman).

Another is a tie-up between Jamaat and the National Citizen Party (NCP), a group formed by student leaders of the 2024 uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina. The alliance also includes other Islamist parties.

The upcoming election has become a bipolar contest as Hasina's Awami League party has been banned from contesting Bangladesh's national polls.

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