Bangladesh Elections: Over 127 million Bangladeshis will vote on 12 February to elect a new national government, marking an end to the 18-month rule of the current caretaker administration.

The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, took control following a student-led uprising that ended 15 years of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party rule.

High-octane political campaigning to woo voters ends tonight – 48 hours ahead of polling. The two main contesting parties out of the 51 competing for power are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami.

For fifteen years under Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government in Bangladesh, India enjoyed robust strategic comfort in Dhaka.

Hasina served as prime minister from 1996 to 2001 and again from 2009 to 2024. Durig this period, India treated Bangladesh as an important strategic partner and ally in maintaining security in South Asia.

Hasina’s ouster in August 2024 — and the exclusion of the Awami League from the current election — has, however, kind of ended that predictability. The likely rise of the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, historically more critical of India, introduces uncertainty into bilateral ties.

The Awami League, has been excluded from the election this time over its alleged role in the deadly crackdown on the 2024 student-led protests, in which 1,400 people were killed.

India has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in Asia. Between April 2023 and March 2024, before Hasina's fall, India sold goods, including textiles, tea, coffee, auto parts, electricity, agriculture, iron and steel and plastics, worth $11.1bn.

India imported readymade garments, leather and leather products, among other items, worth $1.8bn, according to a report in Al Jazeera.

Dhaka–New Delhi ties, however, deteriorated soon after the ouster of the Hasina-led Awami League regime on 5 August 2024 and the subsequent violence against minorities, particularly the Hindu community.

In recent weeks, India has restricted tourist visas for Bangladeshis and also withdrew families of Indian diplomats from Bangladesh, citing security concerns ahead of the national elections.

New Delhi fears that Hasina’s removal from power has created space for groups that are hostile towards India, amid growing anti-India rhetoric and violence in Bangladesh, according to experts on South Asia politics.

Attacks on minorities – including Bangladesh’s 13 million-strong Hindu population – have exacerbated tensions, Dr Chietigj Bajpayee, senior research fellow for South Asia, Asia Pacific Programme at Chatham House wrote recently.

The diplomatic tension has affected sports ties too. Last month, Bangladesh withdrew from the men’s T20 World Cup after the International Cricket Council declined a request to move their group matches from India to the co-hosts Sri Lanka.

This came after a celebrated Bangladeshi bowler, Mustafizur Rahman, was dropped from an Indian Premier League team after pressure from Hindu groups following attacks on the Hindu minority in Bangladesh.

In the Budget 2026 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on 1 February, India halved the development assistance for Bangladesh to ₹60 crore amid frosty bilateral ties between the two neighbouring nations.

While the budget allocation to Bangladesh for 2025-26 was ₹120 crore, the revised estimate was ₹34.48 crore.

Bangladesh's interim government has repeatedly and unsuccessfully asked India to extradite Hasina, especially after a Dhaka court late last year sentenced her to death for ordering a deadly crackdown on the 2024 uprising against her administration.

A United Nations report estimated that up to 1,400 people were killed and thousands wounded, although Hasina has denied ordering the killings.

The two main players in 12 February election – the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tarique Rahman and Jamaat-e-Islami – have historically had not-so-friendly ties with India, unlike during Sheikh Hasina's uninterrupted 15‑year rule from 2009.

“People in Bangladesh see India as complicit with Sheikh Hasina’s crimes,” said Humaiun Kobir, foreign affairs adviser to the leading prime ministerial candidate, Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), according to news agency Reuters.

Bangladesh, bordered by India on three sides and the Bay of Bengal to the south, relies on it for trade, transit and security cooperation, while New Delhi needs stable relations with Dhaka to manage its land border.

Bangladesh shares a 4,000 km border with India, touching five northeastern states. Clearly, stability in Dhaka directly affects cross-border insurgency management, border security and migration flows and transit and infrastructure projects

Under Hasina, Dhaka acted decisively against anti-India militant groups. It will be important to see how the next government works with India. If it adopts a more nationalist posture toward India, security cooperation could weaken — complicating India’s internal security architecture in the northeast, according to experts.

Analysts told Reuters that Bangladesh is expected to keep strengthening ties with China because it offers more substantial economic incentives, and, unlike Hindu‑majority India, does not get drawn into controversies involving mainly Muslim Bangladesh’s Hindu minority during periods of unrest.

“If Dhaka and New Delhi are unable to get things back on track, there will be more incentive for the next government in Bangladesh to go full steam ahead with Beijing,” Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group was quoted as saying by Reuters.

The report quotes politicians and analysts, however, saying that India is too large a neighbour to be completely sidelined.

“Bangladesh needs both China and India, and you have to think of it in pragmatic terms,” said Lailufar Yasmin of Dhaka University said in the same report.

While India helped Bangladesh win independence from Pakistan in 1971, long‑standing grievances include water‑sharing disputes, border killings and resentment over what many Bangladeshis see as India legitimising Hasina’s unpopular rule.

In an interview with The Week this month, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNP secretary general, said these disputes need to be resolved.

"First, water-sharing issues between the two neighbours must be resolved sincerely, not just discussed. “Second, border killings must stop. This is unacceptable in any civilised society. Third, trade issues need fair handling. The recent cricket-related incident was unfortunate and unnecessary. It triggered reactions on both sides. These matters should be addressed through immediate dialogue, keeping sovereignty, self-respect and mutual trust in mind,” he said.

Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit during Begum Khaleda Zia’s bereavement was a positive gesture, Alamgir said.

Despite the bad blood in the India–Bangladesh relationship, some limited cooperation has continued – highlighting the importance of maintaining stable relations between the two countries, according to Dr Bajpayee.

“For New Delhi, a chronically unstable Bangladesh is not only a threat to stability in India’s northeast, but it also undermines regional connectivity initiatives in South Asia and beyond. It also challenges India’s global aspirations: if India cannot have stable relations with its neighbours, what hope is there for its ambitions to become a so-called ‘voice’ of the Global South?” he wrote recently.

Humayun Kabir, a former ambassador to the US, told Arab News that whoever comes to power in Bangladesh, under domestic pressure, will need to reset relations with India.

Tarique Rahman himself has struck a more conciliatory note, telling Reuters last week:

"We'll try to have friendship with all countries, but of course, protecting the interests of my people and my country," he said. Rahman is likely to be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh.

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