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Topic:Government and Politics

The Across Victoria Alliance's Andrew Weidemann with Barnaby Joyce, a keynote speaker at the Horsham event. (ABC News: Richard Willingham)

Link copiedShareShare articleA room full of angry farmers and rural communities, furious with a myriad of state government policies, should be easy pickings for Victoria's Coalition MPs.

But when Victorian Nationals leader Danny O'Brien spoke of the opposition's support for mining at the Across Victoria Alliance conference on Monday, he was loudly jeered, with one farmer walking out.

The alliance was formed by Rupanyup grain grower Andrew Weidemann, bringing together rural anger about higher taxes on farmers to pay for firefighting, rare earth mining on agricultural land, transmission lines and renewable energy projects.

The alliance's conference in Horsham is deep in Nationals territory, in the heart of the Wimmera, and the issues should be a gift for the Coalition. But it's not that straightforward.

"Once they know that you're prepared to change, they will start to panic,'' One Nation's prized recruit Barnaby Joyce told the conference, where he was the keynote speaker.

Barnaby Joyce's keynote address appealed to rural anger. (ABC News: Richard Willingham)

The outspoken political veteran knows how to work a crowd.

Many at the dinner said they would be voting One Nation for the first time come the November state election.

"Unfortunately the National Party, I think, is losing its way,'' Warracknabeal farmer Ross Johns said.

"It's trying to struggle for political survival. The Liberal Party is just under water and about to drown."

National polling shows One Nation enjoying unprecedented support.

Newspoll in The Australian on Monday showed Pauline Hanson's party with a 27 per cent primary vote, behind Labor on 33 per cent, while the Coalition is languishing on 18 per cent.

Political insiders say support won't be as high as 27 per cent in Victoria, but is still likely to be significant.

It will help shape the 2026 state election, and could help Premier Jacinta Allan create history with a fourth consecutive Labor term.

One Nation has struggled in Victoria throughout its history, but its did win an upper house seat in Northern Victoria in 2022.

Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell hopes to see more "bums on seats" after the coming election, with the party aiming to run candidates in all 88 lower house seats and the state's 40-person legislative council — a chamber it's more likely to have success in due to proportional representation.

In an interview with the ABC, Ms Tyrrell rejected often-repeated criticism that the party is racist, saying she has Aboriginal heritage.

Curbing migration is a big issue — even at the state election — and Ms Tyrrell said migrants must assimilate.

"We are supportive of people and their cultures, as long as they are reflective of Australian law," she said.

"If they don't abide by Australian law, then they're not suitable for Australia."

She said One Nation wants to unite people, not divide them.

One Nation's Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell won an upper house seat in 2022. (Supplied)

It's rhetoric used by all parties, but critics of One Nation say it does not properly reflect the party's anti-migration language.

Ms Tyrrell focused heavily on community and people working together to help each other. She listed healthcare, housing, roads and education as policy areas she wanted to champion.

So far, One Nation's policy offering for Victoria is very light on detail, but being a party of grievance and disruption, this matters little to its political strategy.

"Those who are choosing to support One Nation have given up on the system, so they don't care what One Nation's policies look like," pollster and former ALP assistant state secretary Kos Samaras said.

He said One Nation posed a bigger threat to the Liberals and Nationals than the government because the party would "cannibalise conservative votes" in suburban seats the Liberals must win, while threatening the Nationals in rural Victoria.

"It will take resources away from the Coalition in general, but it also will create some problems with the Coalition when it comes to managing the politics," he said.

That's because, to combat One Nation on its right flank, some in the Coalition will want to pursue policies that won't appeal to moderate voters in Melbourne, where there are more seats to won.

Anti-renewable energy sentiment and climate change skepticism, bellowed by Mr Joyce at the conference, are headaches for the Liberal party.

It's unsurprising that state opposition leader Jess Wilson pulled out of attending the Across Victoria Alliance meeting, saying she had a scheduling clash.

Premier Allan was invited to attend. She declined and has labelled the event a "misinformation convention" due, in part, to its anti-renewables platform.

She had also attacked Ms Wilson for cosying up to Mr Joyce and One Nation.

Opposition leader Jess Wilson was due to appear at the conference, before saying she had a scheduling clash. (ABC News)

The struggle for the Coalition, and indeed the Labor Party, is that voters moving to One Nation will no longer entertain major parties.

Many feel left behind by society and government, which is why rhetoric that blames migrants for soaring house prices or unemployment resonates.

It's a trend seen across Western democracies, including in the US, where President Donald Trump has turned it into an art form.

Liberal MPs and insiders are acutely aware that One Nation will impact the Coalition's primary vote.

"We're alive to it, but not spooked,'' one senior Liberal said.

Pauline Hanson is capitalising on concerns about migration as Australians struggle to afford housing.

Liberals are also defensive about the threat, and quickly point out it could hurt Labor in outer suburban seats like Melton.

Labor knows that it is vulnerable in suburban areas due to anti-government sentiment in the community, but it doesn't believe One Nation will pose widespread problems.

In recent federal elections, Barnaby Joyce was discouraged from entering Victoria by his Coalition colleagues.

They feared his politics would turn people off the Coalition. But federally, the Liberal Party has been all but wiped out of metropolitan Melbourne, even with his infrequent visits.

Now he has been freed from the Coalition chains, Victorians can expect to see the member for New England in their state a lot more in the lead-up to November.

And that really would make Jess Wilson's mission even harder.

Analysis by Ian Verrender

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